The Threat
You may remember the fuss in 2001 when two geologists, Steven Ward and Simon Day, announced their theory that the west side of the island of La Palma would collapse one day, creating a mega-tsunami that would cross the entire Atlantic and still be anything up to 25 metres high when it hit New York, and indeed everything from Newfoundland in Canada to Recife in Brazil.
You can see more in this video: La Palma Tsunami
Just about all the geologists on the planet seem to disagree.
Why it isn’t a Threat
Certainly there is a fault line, and some movement has been detected, but the fault appears to be 4 km long, not 25 km. There is no evidence that it’s 2 km deep, so any landslide would be superficial and might not happen all at once. There’s a volcano, but it’s comparatively small. And there’s a lot of water inside the island, but if the volcano erupts and turns it to steam, it has lots and lots of escape routes through the porous lava. Therefore it won’t push the rock into a landslide.
The tsunami that did such awful damage in December 2004 was caused by an earthquake along 1,000 km of sea bed. If a landslide does happen on La Palma, it couldn’t possibly be longer than 25 km, so the tsunami will weaken as it spreads out. You’d hardly get a splash the other side of the Atlantic.
By the way, the research was paid for by an American insurance company. And it wasn’t published in a peer-reviewed journal, which means that other scientists didn’t get chance to give opinions before it was broadcast.
On the other hand, Dutch researchers have found that La Palma isn’t likely to collapse for another 10,000 years. It’s actually quite stable and will need to grow a lot before it collapses. See http://www.physorg.com/news77977989.html.
My opinion? It’s a load of hype.
You can read more at: http://www.lapalma-tsunami.com/tsunami.html and http://www.iberianature.com/material/megatsunami.html
And here’s a You Tube video I recommend, called “The Baloney Detection Kit”: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QQbQRYAdGtI
What you omit is that the BBC, Germans, French and Spaniards have all replicated the possibility of Day’s scenario- potential is there. That may not be ‘formal’ peer review, but its good enough for me to consider the prospect he presents.
BTW- you didnt say what you do at the observatory? Wash windows? Waitress in the cafeteria?
Maybe you can find out about the Spanish scientists’ press release concerning the CO2 monitors stolen from Cumbre Vieja area in September? 600 of them missing after being there undisturbed for 15 yrs. Were they abducted by aliens??
The only Spanish research I’m aware of totally rubbished Day’s “research”. Eg, Day has a 25 km long, deep fault, and all the Spanish researchers could find was a 4 km, shallow fault.
The BBC did not “replicate” Day’s scenario, they swallowed it whole with no attempt at independent research. I’ve trusted the BBC a lot less since then.
I’m not aware of any German or French research. Do you have any references? I’d be interested to see what they have to say.
On the other hand, Dutch researchers have found that La Palma isn’t likely to collapse for another 10,000 years. It’s actually quite stable and will need to grow a lot before it collapses. See http://www.physorg.com/news77977989.html.
I have no idea who stole the CO2 monitors, but the computing equipment must have had a pretty good resale value. Isn’t that why things usually get stolen?
Since you ask, I was a software engineer for the Royal Greenwich Observatory for 11 years. The hours were too long to fit with my family, so now I’m a tour guide, translator and writer.
Are you always this defensive when somebody produces data you don’t like?
I have been discussing this topic on many websites, especially now with the eruptions near El Hierro. But I have given up, people seem to want a disaster. Many of them would like to be “the prophet” that predicted it. A lot of US blogs, 2012 apocalypse minded, seem to want to scare off the entire Eastern coast. Several even said they moved form the coast, out of fear.
Nobody answered me on the investigation of the Dutch university, they rather believe the dramatic BBC video. Now I am the one putting his head in the volcanic sand, and all Canarians are stupid and ignorant. I would say let´s wait which disaster is going to take place, my guess is a human caused, based on facts. Internet has great benefits but is also causing the world losing common sense.
@Mistraola very childish respond, what are you trying to insinuate?
p.s. loved the The Baloney Detection Kit
Any news of how a possible eruption on El Hierro will affect La Palma ? I will be there in 2 weeks and worry about airport shutting etc due to ash clouds
The El Hierro eruption is underwater, so no dust clouds, just a smell of sulphur for a few km around the vent. It’s almost 80 miles from the eruption site to La Palma airport, so I don’t think you’ll have any trouble here. Even if a second eruption stars, that’s likely to be underwater too. Relax!